Why Japan’s “2025 Problem” Is the Housing Trend Foreign Buyers Can’t Ignore

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

• The “2025 Problem” presents unique opportunities for international buyers in Gunma and Saitama.
• New-build homes maintain value, while opportunities exist in the existing home market due to rising vacancies.
• Engaging a bilingual real estate expert can streamline the buying process, ensuring compliance with legal and financing requirements.
• Both Gunma and Saitama offer attractive lifestyles with different appeals—whether you prefer nature or urban amenities.

目次

• The 2025 Problem: How Japan’s Aging Population Is Reshaping Real Estate
• Data-Driven Analysis: Prices, Supply, and Where the Opportunity Lies
• Gunma vs Saitama: What Makes These Markets Unique for Foreigners?
• Financing and Legal Tips: Navigating the Japanese System as a Foreigner
• Lifestyle and Living Experience: Realities for Expats and Migrants
• Risks and Future Outlook
• Call to Action: Get Expert, Multilingual Support with New Connection
• FAQ

The 2025 Problem: How Japan’s Aging Population Is Reshaping Real Estate

Japan’s “2025 Problem” refers to the wave of social and economic challenges triggered as the entire baby boomer generation (born 1947–49) turns 75 or older by this year. With over 18% of the national population now in this age group, the effects are seismic — and nowhere are they felt more acutely than in the real estate sector.

Key impacts include:

• Record-high vacant properties: As seniors downsize, enter care, or pass away, homes are left empty at unprecedented rates.
• Diverging home prices: Soaring demand and prices for new builds; falling values for secondhand (existing) homes — especially outside major cities.
• New focus on rental demand and vacancy solutions: Rental markets are evolving, with local governments seeking to repurpose abandoned homes by attracting new residents, including foreigners.

This demographic tide is not just a Tokyo or Osaka concern; it is transforming the suburbs, commuter belts, and regional centers — especially in places like Gunma and Saitama, where the balance of tradition and accessibility creates distinct market dynamics.

Data-Driven Analysis: Prices, Supply, and Where the Opportunity Lies

National and Regional Trends

• Residential property prices in Japan reached their fastest growth in 34 years, with Tokyo leading a 10.7% year-on-year increase in 2025.
• In the Greater Tokyo Metropolitan Area (including Saitama), the residential index rose 8.14% year-on-year as of January 2025.
• Existing (secondhand) condominium prices are up 7.8% nationwide — but the market is bifurcating: new builds continue to appreciate, while existing home values soften, especially in less central areas.
• Despite rising home prices, construction is constrained by labor and material costs, leading to an undersupply — especially for new homes.

Vacancy: From Risk to Opportunity

The surge in vacant homes (“akiya”) is creating both challenges and opportunities. Government and local agencies are launching initiatives to attract foreign buyers, lower barriers to purchase, and promote creative reuse (e.g., as guesthouses, rentals, or remote-work bases). Gunma and Saitama, with their proximity to Tokyo but more relaxed pace, are particularly active in these campaigns, offering incentives, information, and even matching services for foreigners willing to invest in empty homes or land.

Investment Outlook

“2025 is expected to be a year of stable-to-positive market performance, extending the post-COVID recovery, albeit at a slower pace.” Analysts do not predict a sharp downturn or real estate crash. Instead, Japan is entering a more balanced market phase: new-build demand remains strong, but the overhang of vacant existing homes is tempering price growth and creating buy-low entry points for value-seeking investors.

Gunma vs Saitama: What Makes These Markets Unique for Foreigners?

Gunma: Known for its hot springs, mountains, and rural charm, Gunma offers some of Japan’s best value for money. Vacancies are highest in remote areas, meaning opportunities abound for those seeking a traditional lifestyle, vacation property, or renovation project. Local governments are keen to attract international residents and investors, especially as many villages face depopulation.

Saitama: As a populous Tokyo suburb, Saitama boasts vibrant cities, modern amenities, and quick train access to central Tokyo. New apartment and house builds remain in demand (especially for families), but certain outer suburbs are seeing a rise in empty or aging homes — a strategic entry point for foreign buyers seeking rental income or renovation bargains.

Financing and Legal Tips: Navigating the Japanese System as a Foreigner

Financing/Mortgage for Non-Residents in Japan

Non-residents and foreigners can obtain mortgages, though terms vary by bank and residency status. Major banks in Saitama are familiar with international buyers, but local credit unions in Gunma are increasingly open to foreigners, especially those with a Japanese spouse or long-term visa. Documentation and eligibility requirements typically include a down payment of 20% or more, stable income, proof of Japan residency or long-term intent, and sometimes, a guarantor.

Legal Considerations

There are no national restrictions on foreigners owning real estate in Japan. Legal pitfalls include inheritance issues, property taxes, and the complex paperwork of acquiring vacant homes (especially in the akiya market). Local governments often offer multilingual support, workshops, and even property tours for prospective foreign buyers.

Key Tips:

• Engage a trusted bilingual agent familiar with Gunma or Saitama’s legal nuances.
• Explore municipal programs targeting foreign buyers — some offer subsidies, advisory services, or simplified purchase processes for vacant or underutilized properties.
• Plan for repair/renovation needs, as many vacant homes require upgrades to meet modern living standards.

Lifestyle and Living Experience: Realities for Expats and Migrants

Gunma – Tranquility, Nature, and Local Community

• Quiet countryside with easy access to outdoor recreation such as skiing, hiking, and hot springs.
• Cost of living and home prices are lower than urban Japan, attracting retirees, wellness-seekers, and digital nomads.
• Strong community bonds, traditional festivals, but some language barrier persists in remote areas.

Saitama – Urban Comforts with Tokyo Access

• Excellent public transport, shopping, international schools, and diverse cuisine.
• City-like amenities with less congestion than Tokyo proper.
• Fast-growing expat and returnee communities, making integration easier.

In both prefectures, the post-“2025 Problem” era is increasingly open to foreign lifestyles and investment, as local authorities see newcomers as vital to regional revitalization.

Risks and Future Outlook

• Demographic headwinds: Ongoing population decline means some areas could face further secular decreases in demand and value, especially in rural Gunma.
• Renovation/upgrade costs: Many vacant homes require significant investment to modernize.
• Macro risks: While a market crash is unlikely in the near term, mortgage rate hikes or a global recession could impact prices.
• Opportunities: For well-researched buyers, the window for value purchases and lifestyle-driven investment is now — especially as local support and foreign-friendly policies accelerate.

Call to Action: Get Expert, Multilingual Support with New Connection

Whether you’re targeting a scenic retreat in Gunma or a smart investment near Tokyo in Saitama, navigating Japan’s shifting real estate scene in the age of the “2025 Problem” demands local knowledge and trustworthy guidance. At 新しい接続, our trilingual experts streamline every step — from scouting and financing to legal procedures and community integration.

Ready to start your Japan property journey?
Contact us today for personalized advice and hands-on support in buying property in Japan, finding the best Gunma real estate, and unlocking the Japan lifestyle for expats in Saitama. Let’s build your future in Japan — together.

FAQ

• Can foreigners buy property in Japan? – Yes, there are no national restrictions on foreigners owning real estate in Japan.
• What is the “2025 Problem”? – It refers to the demographic shift as the baby boomer generation ages, leading to increased vacant homes.
• What assistance is available for foreign buyers? – Local governments often offer multilingual support, workshops, and property tours for prospective foreign buyers.
• Are mortgages available for non-residents? – Yes, non-residents can obtain mortgages, though terms vary.