Japan’s “2025 Problem”: How Gunma and Saitama Are Shaping Up for International Property Buyers

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

• Japan’s demographic shifts are impacting real estate dynamics in 2025.
• Gunma and Saitama present unique investment opportunities and challenges.
• Understanding regional trends is key for property buyers and investors.
• Professional guidance is essential for navigating legal and financing landscapes.
• Focus on lifestyle value and regional demand when considering investments.

目次

• 導入
• Background: The 2025 Problem and Japan’s Aging Demographics
• Data-Driven Market Analysis: 2025 Trends
• Gunma vs. Saitama: Investment and Lifestyle Comparison
• Financing & Legal Tips for Non-Residents
• Lifestyle & Living: The Changing Face of Suburban and Rural Japan
• Risks and Future Outlook
• Key Takeaways
• Call to Action

導入

Japan’s real estate market in 2025 is facing seismic shifts—not just from rising prices, but from profound demographic change. The so-called “2025 Problem” marks the year when Japan’s postwar baby boomers turn 75, accelerating the nation’s aging trend and threatening to reshape the housing market. For international buyers and investors eyeing the Tokyo region’s outer ring—especially Gunma and Saitama—this is both a challenge and an opportunity. Whether you’re looking for a family home, a rental investment, or a foothold in a changing market, understanding how population dynamics, property supply, and lifestyle needs are evolving will be key to making a smart, secure move.

Background: The 2025 Problem and Japan’s Aging Demographics

Japan’s population has been aging for decades, but 2025 is a tipping point. All members of the first baby boom generation (born 1947–1949) will be 75 or older, bringing the share of the “high elderly” to over 18% of the total population. This demographic milestone carries major implications:

• Household Formation Drops: Fewer young families means weaker demand for new and existing homes—especially outside top-tier urban zones.
• Rising Vacancies: Older residents pass away or move into care, leaving behind a record number of empty homes, notably in rural and suburban regions.
• Divergence in Values: Prices for new builds, especially in urbanized or commuter-friendly areas, remain high. But the resale value for older homes and less central properties is under pressure.

Gunma and Saitama sit at the crossroads of these trends. Saitama, bordering Tokyo, retains strong commuter demand; Gunma, more rural, illustrates the challenges and opportunities in Japan’s “inner suburban” and provincial heartlands.

Data-Driven Market Analysis: 2025 Trends

National Overview

• Average prices for existing condos in January 2025 rose by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 819,000 JPY (approx. $5,439) per sqm.
• Tokyo and its immediate surrounds (including eastern Saitama) saw price rises of 8–10% over the past year, while nationwide land prices grew 2.7%—the fastest since 1991.
• Supply remains tight for new builds, with construction capacity constrained. There’s no nationwide oversupply, but certain pockets (notably rural or satellite towns) see rising vacancies.

Gunma and Saitama in Focus

• Saitama: As a key commuter hub, Saitama’s new builds command a premium, benefiting from Tokyo’s overflow. Outer suburban areas (e.g., Koshigaya, Kawagoe) are seeing sustained rental demand and value appreciation, though price growth has slowed since 2024.
• Gunma: While areas like Takasaki or Maebashi (with shinkansen access) show resilience, rural Gunma faces mounting vacancies. Secondhand homes—sometimes with sizeable land—are increasingly available at negotiable prices, particularly attractive to those seeking lifestyle change or value investment.

Rental Market & Vacancies

With more elderly residents moving to care or passing on, “akiya” (vacant homes) are rising—particularly in Gunma and less central Saitama. Rental demand remains robust in better-connected nodes, driven by students, young families, and inbound workers.

Gunma vs. Saitama: Investment and Lifestyle Comparison

Key Takeaway: For those seeking liquid, stable-value property near Tokyo with manageable commutes and strong rental potential, Saitama remains the go-to. For value-seekers, renovators, or those desiring a large home or land parcel at a lower cost, Gunma’s vacancies represent unique upside—but require careful vetting of location and future demand.

Financing & Legal Tips for Non-Residents

Financing Update

Japan’s banks still welcome non-resident borrowers, though stricter documentation and a minimum deposit (20–35%) are typical for foreigners. The Bank of Japan is signaling a gentle move away from ultra-low rates; mortgage rates are expected to edge up but remain globally competitive. Foreign buyers should prepare for currency volatility and possible rate rises in 2025–2026.

Legal Essentials

• No citizenship required: Foreigners can buy freehold or leasehold real estate in Japan without restrictions.
• Inheritance risk: Owners should ensure Japanese-language wills/estate plans are set up, especially with rising average age and the risk of “unclaimed” properties via intestate succession.
• For rural homes (akiya): Buyers must check land rights, structural integrity, and city tax policies regarding vacant homes.

Professional Support

Navigating contracts, due diligence, and local compliance is complex—especially for non-Japanese speakers. Partnering with a bilingual, on-the-ground advisor like 新しい接続 minimizes risk and unlocks opportunities.

Lifestyle & Living: The Changing Face of Suburban and Rural Japan

Saitama Lifestyle

• Urban vibrancy, world-class public transport, access to Tokyo’s job and entertainment market.
• Top international schools, shopping, and medical care for families and expats.
• Living costs remain below Tokyo’s core but above rural averages.

Gunma Lifestyle

• Ideal for buyers seeking a quieter, nature-immersed pace: hot springs, ski resorts, mountains, and large gardens.
• Properties can be large and affordable, suitable for remote work, retirement, or unique holiday lets.
• Lower density means fewer services in some towns; language and cultural adaptation are more necessary.

Community and Integration

Both prefectures are investing in foreigner support initiatives, but Saitama is more cosmopolitan, while Gunma offers a deeper, more “authentic” Japanese experience—at the price of extra adaptation and, at times, remoteness.

Risks and Future Outlook

• Vacancy risk: Especially in rural Gunma and outer Saitama, ensure properties are in areas with a stable or resurging population.
• Liquidity risk: Sale cycles may be longer for non-central or unusual homes.
• Market stability: Prices should remain firm thanks to supply constraints and moderate inflation, but regional divergence will widen.
• Policy change: Close attention to BOJ rate moves is warranted—higher rates might cool investment.
• Demographic challenge: The aging trend is structural, not cyclical—buy for lifestyle or targeted yield, not speculation.

Key Takeaways

• Saitama offers stable, liquid property investments due to its proximity to Tokyo and demand from commuters.
• Gunma presents opportunities for value-seekers with its affordable secondhand homes but requires careful selection.
• Professional guidance is essential for navigating legal and financing complexities, especially for non-residents.

Call to Action

Ready to explore buying property in Japan, invest in Gunma real estate, or discover the best neighborhoods for foreigners in Saitama? Let 新しい接続 guide you with dedicated, multilingual support. We offer personalized market insights, legal and financing advice, and on-the-ground expertise to ensure your Japan real estate journey is seamless and rewarding.

Contact New Connection today for a free consultation and take your first step toward a smart, secure property investment in Japan’s evolving heartland.